Private credit borrowers may have more time before facing their biggest refinancing test, according to a Reuters analysis of filings from publicly listed business development companies. The review found that the largest loan maturity walls are not due in 2026, but are instead pushed further out into 2028 and 2029.
Reuters reviewed filings from 74 business development companies, known as BDCs, and found that only about $15 billion of their $84 billion in assets mature in 2026. That suggests the private credit market may not face an immediate broad refinancing crunch, even as higher interest rates and slower earnings continue to pressure borrowers.
The finding is important because private credit has grown rapidly as companies increasingly borrow from non bank lenders instead of traditional banks. Many of those borrowers took on debt during a period of lower rates, and investors have been watching closely to see when large volumes of loans will need to be refinanced in a tougher market.
For now, the data suggests the most difficult period may still be a few years away. With maturities concentrated in 2028 and 2029, borrowers have more time to manage debt, renegotiate terms, or improve earnings before facing major repayment pressure.
However, the delay does not remove the risk. Credit quality is already showing signs of stress, with rising non accrual loans and more payment in kind income. Non accruals are loans where borrowers stop paying interest, while payment in kind allows borrowers to add interest to the debt instead of paying cash immediately. Both can signal financial pressure.
The software and technology sectors are attracting particular attention. Some companies are facing slower growth, weaker cash flow and disruption from artificial intelligence, which could affect their ability to refinance or repay debt later. Stress in one borrower can also affect multiple private credit funds if several lenders hold exposure to the same company.
Even borrowers with 2026 maturities may still need to act early. Reuters said some companies could use liability management strategies such as amend and extend deals, repricing, or other restructuring methods to avoid short term pressure.
The wider private credit market remains under close watch from investors and regulators. Morningstar DBRS warned earlier that private credit pressures could fuel further defaults in 2026, pointing to weaker margins, higher leverage and tighter cash flows among borrowers.
At the same time, the fund finance market has expanded to about $1 trillion, helped by the rise of private credit. Moody’s has warned that the growing use of fund level borrowing and payment in kind structures requires careful underwriting and stress testing.
Overall, the latest data gives private credit borrowers some breathing room, but not a full escape from refinancing risk. The biggest maturity wall may be further away than feared, yet credit stress is already building beneath the surface. For lenders, borrowers and investors, the next two years may be crucial for preparing before the larger wave of maturities arrives.
